I’m trying to figure out what’s likely to happen in our politics given the pandemic, Trump vs Biden, and African Americans demanding their rightful place in all aspects of American life. The best strategy I can think of, in order to make an informed guess about the future, is to eliminate things that clearly are not going to happen and see what we’re left with.
The main event may be Biden-Trump, but the undercard, Nancy Pelosi versus Tucker Carlson, has probative and entertainment value. Carlson and Pelosi haven’t locked horns directly. They would have no reason to. Not yet. But, I have a feeling there will come a time.
Nancy represents the Democratic Party at its best and Tucker represents what Republicans have become. For Nancy, the Democratic Party is a vehicle to help achieve better lives for the the poor, minorities, the working class with an emphasis on peaceful co-existence abroad as opposed to “preemptive” military adventurism and “regime change” stupidity.
Meanwhile, Tucker, is the perfect spokesman for what the Republican Party has become: a vehicle to search for liberal hypocrisy and subject it to merciless ridicule. That’s the whole package. Nobody on the Right talks about “how good Trump is.” How could they? It’s all about how bad Obama was(?!), ridiculing Joe’s obvious challenges (Sean Hannity‘s speciality) and looking for some Democrat somewhere to say something stupid that can then be attributed it to all Democrats and used as “evidence” that democrats “hate America.” That’s Tucker’s area. Judging by the ratings he gets he does it well. And, judging by the ratings MSNBC and CNN don’t get, they’re losing the media battle and keeping Trump in the race….barely.
So, given the above, here’s what looks possible and probable:
FIRST. Trump will not win a convincing indisputable re-election. It’s not out of the question that he could win a squeaker(decided by one or two states) but there is no chance that he will win big. He has never been above 49% in his job approval rating and he’s at 38% (Gallup) now. If the pandemic lessened significantly and the stock market was strong he could win a close one but he remains a significant underdog. The only things that give Trump any chance at all are the shortcomings of the Biden campaign underscored every weekday night by Carlson and Hannity, on FOX with lame and ineffective counter by MSNBC and CNN. Where is Keith Oberman when we need him?
SECOND. It’s entirely possible that Biden will win big and convincingly and more likely that he will have a solid win or even a squeaker. Biden has three possibilities: a big win; a smaller but solid win; a squeaker. Trump has one winning possibility, a squeaker. Trump’s base is not getting bigger and the Despise Trump Base is getting bigger.
THIRD. Assuming Trump loses, will he concede and assist Biden in a smooth transition like defeated Presidents (Ford, Carter, Bush I) have done in the past? And, will Trump take part in an Inaugural Ceremony as defeated Presidents have done? Almost no chance of either of those things happening. Trump doesn’t do honorable gentleman stuff. He would view it all as a personal humiliation. He’d retreat to Mar-a-Largo and let his term run out in his absence from Washington.
FOURTH. Assuming, come September 15, 2020, Biden is way ahead in all polls and the pandemic is making it difficult for Trump to have rallies, the only thing he really enjoys, and he’s getting booed in places and by people who he thought were Trump People. The handwriting is on the wall…a humiliating loss looks inevitable. The idea of sitting on the stage at Joe Biden’s Inauguration is an impossibility for Trump.
What’s he going to do? Start a war with Iran? He has not shown himself to be a stone cold killer so far plus our military might balk recognizing that they were being used and demand that Trump go to the Congress for a Declaration of War as the Constitution provides.
How about this. Trump goes to Pence and attempts to bargain a Resignation for a Pardon. Pence becomes President AND the Republican Nominee to run against Biden and Pence agrees to Pardon Trump on all Federal Crimes immediately upon Pence being sworn in as President. That would meet Trump’s need to save face.
The question then becomes, would Pence make the deal?
Comments are welcome at tomc[at]wednesdayswars[dot]com. Comments will be addressed in subsequent posts.