Donald Trump, the billionaire builder who says he “loves the Bible” is on track to spend more time with it. He certainly will not have to worry about being encumbered by the responsibilities of public office.
Trump told us that “we would win so much with him as President that we would get tired of winning”. He's leading by example there, and becoming a loser.
Trump constructed his whole campaign on the shifting sands of his own magnificence. It worked for a while and then it didn't. Donald Trump will not be the Republican nominee.
In a way, it's too bad. It was a heck of a show while it lasted. He could have been the nominee if he hired a couple of people who knew what terms like “ground game” meant and were aware of the fact that different states had different rules for delegate selection. And maybe one person to whisper in his ear and remind him to keep his story straight on where he stood on things like abortion, NATO, and nuclear weapons.
Before Wisconsin, some betting sites had the probability of a Trump Nomination as high as 71%. Now, the number at Betfair is 54%.
That's straight out crazy. My number is 5%. He is a one in twenty shot to get the Republican Nomination. And the only reason I give him any chance at all is because he's got money and he's unpredictable.
So, now what? Will Trump see the handwriting on the wall and look for some face-saving way to exit? Or, will he go for the 20 to 1 shot and upgrade his entire operation and message and sprint all out to the Convention in Cleveland? The answer to those questions depend on whether Trump was ever in it to win it in the first place.
In other words, who knows?
PS: The results in Wisconsin can't help but enhance the prospects for Ted Cruz. The likelihood that the Convention will turn to someone like Mitt Romney or Paul Ryan is ZERO unless it has the blessing of both Trump and Cruz. Finally, John Kasich still has a shot but he's got to book a couple of wins quick.
I will post again on Wednesday May 4, 2016 or before if the news flow dictates.
Comments are welcome at tomc[at]wednesdayswars[dot]com. Comments will be addressed in subsequent posts.